I basically think of it as:

P(bad 21700 cell) = x

P(good 21700 cell) = 1-x

If there’s 15 cells, then probability of all 15 being good cells is:

(1-x)^15

Let’s say x = 0.01 or 1%

Therefore probability of a good cell is 99%

But the probability of 15 good cells together in a 12.0 is 0.99^15 which is only 86%!!! Pretty low!

Balancing 15 cells, like in a 12.0, is a nightmare. Problem is compounded by the fact the 12.0 is used in high power draw tools a lot of times. It’s hard to keep 15 cells consistently healthy. One bad cell is enough to tank the pack and cause issues like it only charging to 3 bars.

I have milwaukee 18v tools and have had a battery fail within a year and have had there drills and impact driver overheat. I also don’t like there saws much compared to other brands
I’m starting to replace my 18v tools with makita 40v XGT because the cooling is much better on all the tools in that line
I do think the milwaukee MX fule platform will be good with the new batteries the plate compactor and power trowel look to be worth it with new large battery.

Been using milwaukee professionally for 8 years now and have never had a tool fail I have had some bad batteries but never a tool issue maybe I have been lucky hope it stays that way

Because most tool users wouldn’t pay the premium for it?

OK, first off, I am not in the trades, or make a living off my tools. Since 2015, I have been on medical leave, so “retired”.

Climate, I am half way between Montreal and Ottawa, in Canada, so pretty much the opposite from your Texas heat.

I definitely do not use 3-8 batteries a day. More like at least 1, sometime 3-4.

On days when I have help for larger projects I have, I can use a dozen or more…but this happens once every 2 months. Keep in mind also that my battery usage is usually across different platforms.

I am anal about things like my batteries after having had issues with NiCads and NiMh years ago. With these I usually mark the month and year I got it, using a Sharpie or paint pen. I always charge and then put it on a shelf space, where it goes in the back of the line and no battery gets forgotten.

I have lots of Ryobi tools and batteries, used mainly by my wife for her artisanal “hobby/business”, but I manage the batteries for her.

Any platform I have, I always try to by a radio, flashlight or small hand vac, especially for a platform I have few tools and the batteries can get used infrequently. Between the radios, flashlight and vacs, I try to make sure no battery sits unused.

I have always used my tools as often as possible, just because I like to, but having moved into a very, very old house 4 years ago, I have projects till the “end of days”.

Right now re-doing the kitchen when the weather is not great and a carport for my tractor when it is nice. Fixing up my main workshop, when I get a chance, redoing shingles on my sheds, garage and house.

I definitely have the time to work on stuff, unfortunately, after a few medical procedures, working 3-5 hours in a day is all I can muster.

So, overall, your usage is definitely more than mine. But what you say about a poll, that would be very interesting. Actually, over on Garage Journal, I was part of the members that put together the vise spreadsheet. Something like a poll (definitely easier) or spreadsheet would be interesting, but also a lot of work keeping updated.

Anyway, all the info, as good or interesting as it can be, still won’t take into account usage by individual. I understand you being in a trade and having your batteries in a trailer…comes with the territory. Me, I am probably a bit more meticulous than the average user, and others might be even more careful than me. Conversely, I know for sure (I have friends that do this) that many don’t take care of their batteries. Some will charge and use, and again charge and use the same 2-3 batteries, and then grab 1 at the bottom of a tool box a year later and find it does not perform as well as the others.

I have friends which I tell them they are “brain lazy” because they will do the dumbest things with their batteries, just because they won’t take a minute to do things right. When something goes wrong, it’s the MFR’s crappy batteries at fault.

Anyway, that is most of my battery story. Overall, especially when I look back at the NiCad/NiMh days, I have had pretty good luck with my Lithium batteries.

They should be just as durable in this regard; power tool brands know how much tools and batteries tend to be dropped, and design for that.

As mentioned, the plastic housing has also been upgraded for greater chemical resistance. That could help, depending on why your batteries have been cracking.

Interesting numbers. What do you do with your batteries (work wise) and what climate are you in? It would be interesting to create a multiple question poll that went over details like: How many batteries do you have? Which brands and what ahs? How many battery failures have you had, over what amount of time? How often is each battery used? Etc.

It sounds like you have enough batteries to cycle them slowly unless you’re running a crew with all of those. I will typically go through 3-8 batteries in a day depending on what I’m doing, so mine get used a lot, but then they’re also stored outside in a trailer most of the time and that trailer temp is probably hovering around 100 degrees F. on any given day through most of mid spring-late fall (Texas). Obviously cooling tech won’t do any good when it’s just sitting there baking in my trailer, but when I’ve tested the surface temps of my batteries after using them they typically hover above that temp anyways.

Anyways, hope you get this and can respond to what level of use yours are typically getting.

The M18 12ah, while not notorious, definitely has had higher instances of problems, probably more than any battery currently available.

I know on the Torque Test Channel, they have stated that Makita LXT batteries have had issues, higher than average for them. Some just stop working within a year or two.

I found this interesting as they are very unbiased, and also quality channel, very informative. I have had about 30 LXT batteries, a couple of 1.5’s, the rest are 3, 4 & 5 ah batteries. I use a paint pen to mark the month and year I got them and some are 10, some 12 and a couple 15 years old. These older ones hold a charge, probably in the 80% or better as I often don’t realize I am using an older battery.

Makita never advanced LXT battery tech that much, but in a sense, they didn’t need to. All their tools work great with their 3 to 5 ah batteries, last very long (for me), and rather than going with 8-12 ah, they just went 2×18 when the tool required the extra oomf.

I have regular Dewalt as well as FV, but have not owned them as long, maybe oldest being 6-7 years old, but work fine so far.

I have M18 2, 4, 6, and 8 ah, all with no issues, but also being maybe 6-7 years old.

My M12’s, these have been great. I have somewhere in the 15 to 20 batteries and these, like my Makita, I have some from 2010, 2012; all have worked great.

I have been pretty lucky with batteries. The one failure I have had was a few years ago, a 3 ah LXT and it was 7 years old at the time.

Milwaukee has been working on these battery technologies for a while.

They had pouch cells under test in their battery lab last June (14 months ago), and it seems they went with the same supplier for their Forge XC 6Ah batteries. Dewalt’s PowerStack 5Ah battery was not yet announced or out at that time.

Cordless power tool tech is going in very different directions right now, and at different paces. It’s too early for any brand to be playing catch-up.

Anything with a brushless motor is asking for trouble. I’ve had Milwaukee and DeWalt as my primary tools and I’ve had so many brushless motors fail after a year or two. Like you I’ve got old drills, sidewinders and table saws that are still running decades later, but these brushless motors and/or pcbs can’t handle the heat and dirt of a jobsite.

All this HO battery stuff is rather misleading. I owned the Milwaukee 9″ cut off, chainsaw, and sds max drill.

They were all fine tools, but my 12ah batteries would overheat very quickly when using them for more than 10 minutes. I also have dewalt flexvolt tools and the batteries were considerably cooler. Never a problem with overheating.

They can pull higher and higher loads with battery technology, but they need to figure out how to cool them better or it’s useless. I sold all of my milwaukee tools and went purely with dewalt because I could rely on flexvolt tools to keep operating over longer periods of time.

Also, out of the two 12ah M18 batteries I had, one died within 2 years (got it replaced under warranty but they sent me an old 12ah that was obviously refurbished). I have 8 flexvolt batteries and I have had 2 die under warranty with them too, so it seems that any kind of high demand usage is going to kill big batteries. If they can create batteries that will last for 10+ years, then that will be something to boast about. As it stands, my oldest battery is a 5ah dewalt 20v battery and it’s about 7 years old, but the rest haven’t made it (milwaukee, ryobi, dewalt). I’m sure there are others with older batteries, but I’m talking about daily usage and 1000+ charge cycles.

Don’t disagree on Milwaukee being marketing hounds. But to be fair, Dewalt/Black and Decker Stanley are no slouches either. From the begining BDS bought Dewalt mainly for the name, not for a market in radial arm saws.

Because paid social media shills make it that way… I’m guessing Milwaukee spends millions every year paying people for their good word and to push products for them on social media. Like these pipeline events are totally free trips, one of the only companies to do it. They steadily send out free products. They are a marketing company. Always been like that, no matter what